Do morning line systems for horse racing really work?

We live in an instant, disposable, fast, self-service economy and that has affected almost every human endeavor, including how people want to undermine horse racing. In search of a fast horse racing system, many people turn to the numerous morning line methods that have been around for a long time.

The lure of a quick way to pick winners is nothing new and that’s why the morning line is so tempting. A public handicapper who is at the track every day (it’s his job) looks at each horse on the show and gives what he thinks are the odds the public will place on the horse before publication time. But how accurate are those predictions, and what other factors come into play?

First of all, a track handicapper is an employee of the race track and the track needs people to buy and race horses on the track. Therefore, keeping owners happy is of the utmost importance. Track handicappers regularly place lower odds on horses so as not to offend owners. Now, I’m not talking about horses that have a chance of winning, those horses usually get the odds they deserve, but I’m talking about horses that don’t have a chance of winning and it’s pretty obvious. If a horse must be at 100-1, no track handicap will put the runner at those odds.

The reason is twofold, first of all, what if the horse wins? The handicapper will look pretty silly and will never hear the ending. Second, someone is paying to keep the horse on the track and race it. The last thing the track wants is to insult the owner or trainer or risk having their horses moved elsewhere. So horses at 10-1 or 20-1 may actually qualify those odds or they may be much worse.

A good longshot handicap system that looks at those horses and digs into other factors to throw a few roses among all the thorns is great, but a fast morning lines system won’t do that.

Another problem with the morning line system is that it relies on a person you probably don’t even know to determine the odds of the runners. If the track handicap has a bad day or week, you lose because of that. What can be even worse is that you can have multiple people doing that job and one can be good while the other can be a bad smell. When I worked advertising at a track, my boss and I used to take turns doing the morning line and compete with each other to see who could do the best job.

That’s good for the players, but what if the person doing it is mad at the track? He or she may give a lousy line out of spite. What I mean is that those betting systems on the morning line may work from time to time, but they will only be as consistent as a stranger you depend on to hurt the races. That is the reason those morning line systems have been around, they still do not show a consistent win and should only be used for quick method, light betting and recreation.